2024 Auto Sales: A Strong Finish and a Promising Outlook
New-vehicle sales in the U.S. closed out 2024 with solid numbers, exceeding initial forecasts. According to estimates from Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive company, sales reached approximately 16.0 million units. This marks a modest increase of just over 2% compared to 2023 and represents the best sales volume since the pandemic.
Nearly every major automaker experienced year-over-year sales growth in 2024. General Motors led the pack, while Honda and Mazda demonstrated impressive gains.
Chart comparing segment sales forecast for December 2024.
December’s new-vehicle sales continued this trend, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.5 million. This figure is up from 15.9 million in December of the previous year and equivalent to November’s rate. The sales volume in December reached 1.47 million, representing a 7.7% jump from the previous month, but remained flat compared to the same period one year ago.
Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, noted that the end of the U.S. election season has contributed to the increase in sales. He indicated that increased consumer confidence, lower interest rates and reduced economic uncertainty have boosted sales, and this momentum is expected to continue into next year.
Key Factors Driving Sales
Several factors influenced the strong performance in 2024. Improved vehicle inventory levels and increased incentives played a role in sustaining sales throughout the year, particularly in the first three quarters. Consumer confidence and reduced economic uncertainties are also important factors.
Chart comparing full year 2024 Cox Automotive U.S. auto sales forecast.
Automaker Performance
- General Motors: Retained the top spot in 2024, with sales expected to finish near 2.7 million units, marking a 4.2% increase year-over-year.
- Honda: Showed the most significant market share gains, increasing by half a point due to strong sales of the HR-V and Civic models.
The Road Ahead: 2025 Forecast
Looking ahead to 2025, Cox Automotive anticipates continued growth in the new-vehicle market, projecting an approximately 3% increase. This positive outlook is based on the ongoing trends of consumer confidence, stable interest rates, and reduced economic uncertainty.
