Shares of Rivian and Lucid experienced significant gains following the passage of President Donald Trump’s tax bill in the House of Representatives. The bill, which extends the 2017 tax cuts, also includes a provision to end the $7,500 electric vehicle (EV) tax credit on September 30.
Stock Performance
Rivian’s stock rose as much as 4.6%, while Lucid’s shares increased by up to 8.8% on Thursday. This surge comes after BNP Paribas analysts noted that both companies are poised to benefit from the elimination of the EV tax credit.
Impact on Tesla
The removal of the tax credit is expected to negatively impact larger automakers, particularly Tesla, which has been selling more than 200,000 eligible EVs since 2009. Tesla delivered over 336,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025 alone, far exceeding the threshold that disqualifies vehicles from the tax credit.
Analysts predict that the loss of the EV tax credit could significantly affect Tesla’s sales volume, which has already been struggling. Morningstar’s Seth Goldstein stated that the expedited elimination of the EV tax credit would be “the biggest area that could impact Tesla.” Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Brinkman noted that the combined effect of Trump’s bill and other proposed legislation could threaten more than half of Tesla’s 2025 profits.
Delivery Numbers and Tax Credit Eligibility
Rivian delivered 8,000 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, while Lucid delivered 3,109 vehicles during the same period. Unlike Tesla, Rivian’s vehicles do not qualify for the tax credit due to sourcing requirements for battery materials. However, Rivian has utilized a leasing loophole to allow customers to benefit from the credit.
Market Performance Year-to-Date
Tesla and Lucid have experienced declines of 22% and 28.5%, respectively, this year. Rivian’s stock has fared slightly better, down only 2% over the same period.
The elimination of the EV tax credit is seen as a potential advantage for Rivian and Lucid, as it may level the playing field against larger competitors like Tesla.
