U.S. Electric Vehicle Adoption: Progress and Projections
Recent data suggests electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the United States is progressing well. Projections indicate that the country is on course to achieve a 50% adoption rate by 2030.
Data published by Recurrent Auto on Wednesday supports this optimistic outlook. Even with some reports of an EV sales deceleration, various revised sales forecasts still point towards the 50% target. Internal market predictions from Recurrent also foresee the U.S. entering the “mass adoption phase” of EV adoption, defined as 15%, by the conclusion of 2025
The International Energy Agency (IEA) data aligns with these findings, indicating similar outcomes for battery-electric vehicle (BEV) adoption in the U.S. over the next few years. The IEA anticipates global EV figures to increase considerably by 2030, assuming current policies remain in place.
A key factor supporting this growth is the reduction in battery costs. These costs have reached a new low and are expected to decline by 40% between 2022 and 2025.
Upcoming EV models, including the BMW Neue Klasse, GMC Sierra EV, Hyundai Ioniq 7, Nissan Maxima EV, Rivian R2 series, and the VW ID.Buzz, are also expected to contribute to increased adoption.
Government initiatives are playing a significant role, too. Incentive programs are helping to drive EV adoption, with as many as 17 states implementing ambitious zero-emissions targets that exceed federal guidelines.
In 2022, Recurrent forecast that the Tesla Model Y could become the world’s best-selling vehicle in 2023. This prediction came to fruition, as confirmed by the company during its Q4 2023 earnings call, citing data from Jato Dynamics.
BEV sales achieved a new milestone in the U.S. in 2023, and state adoption rates continue to vary.
