The UK’s independent climate advisers are advocating for a significant shift towards electric vehicles (EVs) on the roads within the next 15 years.
The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) suggests that 80% of cars, 75% of vans, and nearly two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) should be electric by this time. To achieve this, the CCC states that the market share of new electric cars would need to increase from 16% in 2023 to 55% by 2027, with electric vans jumping from 6% to 34%.
Electric vehicles are the main source of decarbonisation, with little or no role for hydrogen in heavier vehicles.
The CCC’s new decarbonization pathway for the UK highlights EVs as the primary route, dismissing hydrogen cars and vans and suggesting a minimal role for hydrogen in heavier vehicles.. The committee emphasizes the continued development of charging infrastructure as crucial for boosting commercial confidence in electric vans. They also suggest that further steps are required to remove obstacles to EV adoption.
The committee welcomed the government’s plans to reinstate the 2030 deadline for phasing out new petrol and diesel car sales. However, they also urge ministers to confirm the 2040 phase-out date for new diesel HGVs, reinstate the 2030 date for vans, and consider including hybrid cars in the phase-out plan.
With the UK’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, surface transport is currently the largest-contributing sector in the UK economy. Surface transport added up to 24% of the total UK emission in 2023, or 102.8 MtCO2e. The CCC’s targets say that sticking to electrification will cut surface transport emissions by 86% by 2040.
Surface transport will then account for 14.9 MtCO2e of UK emissions, and be the fourth-highest-emitting sector. The committee believes that the sector can almost completely decarbonize by 2050 through swift electrification.
Professor Piers Forster, Interim Chair of the Committee on Climate Change, stated:
For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming. This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills.
Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy. We will need Government and business to deliver the investment, but we are confident that this Seventh Carbon Budget offers a secure, prosperous future for the UK.
Under UK law, the committee provides independent advice on how the UK should emit over five-year periods, known as ‘carbon budgets,’ and how the UK can reduce emissions. Each carbon budget functions as a step towards net zero by 2050. The most recent advice indicates that by 2040, emissions should be 13% of their 1990 levels to keep the UK on track. This advice isn’t a government policy, but the government has historically accepted it.
Matthew Adams, CEO and head of transport at Recharge UK, the EV arm of the Renewable Energy Association (REA), said:
It is now clear that the success of HGV decarbonisation in many cases after 2040 lies with electric batteries.
It is therefore critical that the Government include HGV charging infrastructure in its rapid charging fund and address rising concerns around grid connections to support the backbone of the UK’s economy, the logistics sector. Without significant investment in public and depot-based charging, the 7th Carbon Budget’s targets will fail to be hit.
He added:
What underpins the transition to electric vehicles is the need for investment, which can only be achieved through clear and consistent long term policy signals. We must move away from the chop and change of the last Government and move towards consistent messaging around the positive role EVs play in the transition to a net zero economy, improving our health, our wallets and our economy. Government must therefore kick start a mass information campaign to raise awareness of the number of ways consumers can access an EV at low cost such as salary sacrifice and the growing second-hand market.
Ken McMeikan, CEO of Moto, the motorway services operator, argues that establishing the UK’s EV charging network is “absolutely critical”. However:
Delivering the charging networks required means addressing key challenges, including planning delays, power grid capacity, and land availability. We repeat our call for motorway service areas to be recognised as critical infrastructure and for planning regulations to be streamlined. Government clarity on grid upgrades is equally crucial, and we echo the CCC’s call for closer collaboration between regional and national policymakers. Without timely investment in energy infrastructure, the UK risks slowing down its progress on transport decarbonisation.”
