A new white paper published by FleetCheck offers guidance to fleets opting to extend the operational lifespan of their diesel vans. The document explores how operators’ reluctance to embrace van electrification, combined with growing shortages and increased prices for diesel vans, is likely to result in significantly longer replacement cycles.
Barrie Wilson, a commercial fleet consultant at the fleet software specialist, commented on the trends: “We believe there are two key trends in the van sector. Van fleets are not electrifying at anything like the rate envisaged in the ZEV (zero emission vehicle) mandate because of issues over range, payload, and cost.” He continued, “Major manufacturers, including Ford and Stellantis, have announced their intention to meet ZEV Mandate production ratios by reducing diesel van production instead of incurring potentially exorbitant fines.”
Wilson further explained the market dynamics: “The most probable outcome of these market conditions is that diesel vans will become increasingly scarce and more expensive. Yes, some fleets will begin to electrify in response, but indications from our customer base suggest many will maintain their existing diesel vans for an extended period.” FleetCheck has termed this phenomenon the “Havana Syndrome,” likening it to how older vehicles are kept roadworthy for many years by intensive maintenance, mirroring the continued use of US cars from the 1940s and 1950s in Cuba.
“One of the main developments we observed post-pandemic was the extension of fleets’ replacement cycles,” Wilson added. He noted: “They are typically already a couple of years longer for diesel vans compared to pre-COVID, and there is now a chance they could be stretched even further. This situation creates a range of issues for operators, with safety and running costs being the most critical, but it’s also crucial to minimize the environmental impact of these older vehicles and keep them looking good to protect your corporate image.”
The FleetCheck white paper highlights four key areas requiring fleet attention: routine service and maintenance, defect management, record keeping and data collection, and budgetary pressures. Wilson explained, “There’s no denying that operating vans for potentially eight years or longer will create significant issues for fleets, and the white paper examines them.” He continued, “Our view is that it’s feasible for operators, but it will require a high degree of effort, and, of course, fleet management software plays a key role.”
Wilson also noted that the most significant obstacle to the Havana Syndrome would be government action aimed at making the operation of aging diesel vans economically unviable. “If this becomes a widespread and identifiable trend into the 2030s, it’s likely that any government committed to reducing emissions would seek to remove these diesel vans from the road through taxation,” he said. Options for achieving this include increased costs for diesel vans entering low-emission zones, higher vehicle excise duty (which would need to be high enough to make electric vans attractive), or higher fuel duty (which could affect diesel car drivers and be politically challenging).
