Future Automotive Technologies Poised for Massive Growth
The automotive industry is undergoing a dramatic transformation, driven by several key megatrends. These include autonomous driving, the rise of mobility as a service, the electrification of vehicles, increased connectivity, and the emergence of software-defined vehicles. A new report, “Future Automotive Technologies 2024-2034: Applications, Megatrends, Forecasts,” from IDTechEx, examines these trends and predicts a market value exceeding US$1.6 trillion by 2034.
Autonomous Driving: A Dual Opportunity
Autonomous driving presents two major opportunities: the growth of the automotive perception sensors market and the creation of a new autonomous mobility industry. Currently, the sensor market, already valued at over US$10 billion, is dominated by cameras and radars used in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) such as adaptive cruise control and automatic emergency braking. These systems, frequently found in partially automated SAE level 2 vehicles, are expected to continue growing. However, the introduction of SAE level 3 technologies, which allow for hands-off driving in certain scenarios, is projected to drive a significant 10-year CAGR of 13.6%.
The Mercedes S-Class has been a pioneer in bringing SAE level 3 self-driving technology to consumers, signaling the start of widespread availability of this technology. The IDTechEx report provides forecasts on the rollout of level 3 technologies and their impact on the demand for various sensors like cameras, radar, and LiDAR.
Beyond private vehicles, autonomous driving paves the way for robotaxis, promising safe and affordable mobility. These vehicles require even more sophisticated sensor suites. While the hardware is expensive, the revenue potential lies in the services they offer. Robotaxis could capture a significant portion of the over ten trillion miles already traveled annually. This report provides analysis of current robotaxi performance and deployment and forecasts their city by city spread and progression toward a mainstream alternative to car ownership.
Electrification: The Transition to Mainstream
Electric cars, having transitioned from early adoption to mainstream in 2022 and 2023, are poised for continued growth. Driven by pressures to decarbonize the automotive industry and the upcoming bans on internal combustion engines (ICE), the dominance of electric vehicles is almost certain. The shift to electric vehicles is also creating new opportunities for component manufacturers. The market for lithium-ion batteries, powerful traction motors, and advanced power electronics, currently valued at over US$100 million, is expected to grow substantially, playing a key role in the overall US$1.6 trillion automotive technologies market.
Connected and Software-Defined Vehicles: New Revenue Streams
While connectivity has long been present in vehicles, the emphasis today lies in how original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are leveraging this connectivity to unlock new revenue streams. Subscription services, for features like heated steering wheels, are becoming more common. Many luxury features will be defined by software, not just hardware, leading to the introduction of subscription models for over-the-air updates and advanced driver assistance systems. Furthermore, connectivity is expected to facilitate in-car payments for services such as parking, charging, and even drive-through transactions, creating additional revenue opportunities for OEMs through transaction fees.
This report offers an overview of the applications powered by connectivity, explores the significance of software-defined vehicles, and examines the enabling technologies contributing to this shift. It also forecasts the projected revenue from these new services by 2034.
In-Cabin Sensing: Enhanced Safety
Driver monitoring systems (DMS) are becoming more critical with the rise of advanced driver-assistance systems and level 3 autonomous driving features. These systems help determine whether a driver is engaged or if the driver is still holding onto the wheel. Modern ADAS systems and emerging level 3 systems, which offer hands-off driving in certain situations, need more sophisticated driver-monitoring systems. This report addresses the emerging technologies aimed at monitoring driver attentiveness and safeguarding children and pets left in vehicles. The advantages and disadvantages of each system are discussed, along with market projections.
These interconnected megatrends are reshaping an automotive industry that has remained relatively unchanged for decades. The report delivers ten-year forecasts for the most impactful technologies in the automotive sector, analyzing how customers drive, interact with, and own their vehicles. The key areas of focus are:
- Autonomous driving
- Electrification
- Connected and software-defined vehicles
- In-cabin monitoring
The report provides details on the current state of deployment, growth drivers, enabling technologies, and potential opportunities for both componentry and service-based revenue streams within each of these megatrends. It also includes market forecasts for vehicle unit sales, component sales revenue, and service revenue.
Key Metrics
CAGR: 21.1% (from 2024-2034) for future automotive technologies, reaching a market size of over US$1.6 trillion Forecast Period: 2024 – 2034 Forecast Units: Unit sales, revenue (US$) Regions Covered: North America (USA + Canada), Europe, Japan, China, Worldwide *Segments Covered: Autonomous vehicles with SAE levels 0-4 plus robotaxis. Electric car powertrain; BEV, HEV, PHEV, & FCEV. Connected & software-defined vehicles using IDTechEx’s SDV level guide (levels 0 to 5). In-cabin sensing using TOF cameras, infra-red cameras, radar, steering wheel torque sensors, steering wheel capacitive touch sensors. Analyst access from IDTechEx
