California’s EV Mandate: Challenges Ahead
California’s ambitious plan to mandate that all new cars sold in the state be zero-emission vehicles by 2035 recently received a boost from legal and political sources. The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an attempt by several states to challenge the constitutionality of the mandate. Additionally, the outgoing Biden administration’s Environmental Protection Agency approved California’s request for a waiver, allowing the state to bypass federal emission standards. This renewal complicates President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign promise to obstruct the 2035 decree, a key component of the state’s broader goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
Governor Gavin Newsom celebrated the developments.
“Clean cars are here to stay,” Newsom stated. “The Biden-Harris administration reaffirmed what we’ve known for decades — California can rise to the challenge of protecting our people by cleaning our air and cutting pollution.”
Newsom added, “With more makes and models available than ever before, millions of Californians have already made the switch to clean cars. Automakers and manufacturers have made it clear they intend to stick with California and consumers as we move toward clean cars that save people money. Naysayers like President-elect Trump would prefer to side with the oil industry over consumers and American automakers, but California will continue fostering new innovations in the market.”
Despite the gains and Newsom’s strong statements, the practical implementation of the 2035 ban remains uncertain due to a number of difficulties and legal challenges by fuel manufacturers, who object to the state’s authority to prohibit sales of internal combustion engine vehicles. The Supreme Court is scheduled to address the matter next year. Moreover, Trump is expected to challenge the EPA’s waiver, potentially through direct action or legislation passed by a Republican-controlled Congress.
Even if the mandate survives these legal and political challenges, California faces considerable hurdles in transitioning from the current 39.4% of auto purchases being battery- and hydrogen-powered vehicles, along with plug-in hybrids, to 100% by the deadline. California has approximately 13 million cars on the road, with about 2 million currently meeting the zero-emission standard. The state sees between 1.7 million and 2 million new vehicle purchases annually. The growth in ZEV sales has recently slowed.
Further complicating matters, Trump has vowed to eliminate the $7,500 federal tax credit for zero-emission vehicle purchases, though Newsom has pledged to maintain this incentive using state funds. Other obstacles include the lack of readily available and functioning charging stations, the high purchase prices of EVs making them inaccessible for low-income families, and concerns about the range of zero-emission vehicles, particularly in rural areas.
Furthermore, even if only zero-emission vehicles are sold after 2035, millions of gasoline- and diesel-powered cars will persist on the roads. The state also needs to balance maintaining fuel availability for these vehicles with indirectly compelling refineries to reduce output, potentially leading to closures.
Finally, the state must generate enough electricity to power the significant increase in zero-emission vehicles while simultaneously transitioning to zero-emission power production through wind and solar arrays, supported by substantial battery storage. With these intertwining factors needing resolution, achieving the 2035 goal will require significant effort and precise execution.
