Let’s start with some good news: the shift toward eco-friendly freight is gaining momentum. Over the past few years, we’ve witnessed an increasing number of zero-emission commercial trucks, delivery vans, and buses hitting the road. This much-needed evolution of our freight system is accelerating.
Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), like the big rigs on our highways and the vans that deliver our packages, represent just over 10% of vehicles on the roads. Yet, they account for more than half of the ozone-forming nitrogen oxide pollution and fine particulate matter pollution from on-road vehicles. These vehicles are also responsible for about 30% of greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles. Zero-emission trucks and buses eliminate tailpipe emissions and significantly reduce overall pollution, contributing to a cleaner environment. One key indicator of this progress is the growing number of zero-emission truck and bus registrations.
The number of zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles registered in the U.S. has grown significantly, with cargo vans leading the way. (Image: UCS/S&P Global Mobility, 2024)
In 2023, over 27,500 zero-emission MHDVs were deployed, a substantial increase from the roughly 600 deployed in 2019. This represents a small but growing share of the total MHDV market. The rise of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in segments of the MHDV fleet has been remarkable in certain states. Cargo vans, such as those used for last-mile deliveries, have experienced the most significant growth. While only a handful of zero-emission cargo vans were in operation in 2021, over 22,000 of these vehicles now make deliveries across the country. In 2023, these electric vans accounted for over 7% of new registrations nationally within their vehicle class.
Large companies are leading in the expansion of electric vans. In 2023,
Businesses with larger fleets are registering more zero-emission cargo vans. (Image: UCS/S&P Global Mobility, 2024)
about 12% of cargo vans registered by businesses with over 500 vehicles were electric, compared to just over 2% for those with fewer than 50 vehicles. This can be attributed to greater access to capital for larger companies, lower fuel bills, and increased flexibility with larger vehicle numbers. However, businesses of all sizes can benefit from the reduced fuel and maintenance costs offered by electric vehicles. The price parity between electric and combustion cargo vans makes them a viable option for companies with smaller budgets.
Several states show increased adoption of zero-emission cargo vans, influenced by factors like electricity costs and regulations. (Image: UCS/S&P Global Mobility, 2024)
Some states show more rapid adoption rates. In 2023, nearly one in three cargo vans registered in Washington state were ZEVs, and Georgia had over 22% ZEV registrations among cargo vans in 2023. Florida registered the most electric cargo vans, with roughly 3,400, representing almost 20% of all registrations for this vehicle type. Factors such as electricity prices and regulations encouraging ZEV sales contribute to this accelerated adoption.
Several key factors behind this accelerated adoption are the perfect fit of EVs for last-mile delivery, and the lower cost of these vehicles:
According to recent data from a Census Bureau survey of Class 2b and larger vehicles, over 90 percent of Class 2b and 3 trucks and vans travel less than 100 miles per day.
Given the average range of the most common electric cargo vans on the market of around 150 miles, fleets readily see the advantages. Delivery vehicles often operate on predictable routes, returning to a depot. This can enhance the benefits of using EVs which can readily charge overnight.
Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles often operate on short, predictable routes (Image: UCS/ US Census Bureau, 2024)
Electric cargo vans also offer lower operating costs. Using current average electricity and gasoline prices, the fuel cost for the electric version of Ford’s Transit cargo van is about $0.10 per mile, compared to $0.19 per mile for the gasoline version. In many cases, electric cargo vans have reached upfront cost parity with comparable combustion models thanks to the federal tax credit of $7,500 offered under the Inflation Reduction Act, and additional incentives in some states.
Costs for building charging infrastructure can add to the total cost of fleet electrification. Larger trucks and buses may need high-power chargers, but last-mile delivery vehicles can charge overnight on common Level-2 chargers, helping reduce charging costs. While electric delivery vans have a smaller public health, environmental, and climate impact compared to larger diesel trucks and buses, Class 2b and 3 vans still travel over 33 billion miles annually in the U.S., emitting about the same amount of greenhouse gases as nearly 70 natural gas power plants operating for a year. Electric delivery and cargo vans serve as a successful example of electrification in our freight system.
This growth is impressive, and delivery vehicles are becoming increasingly familiar sights in neighborhoods across the country. In the coming months, the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) will release additional research and analysis on the early successes of truck and bus electrification, as well as the opportunities and barriers to further expansion.
