EV Switching Blueprint: What Britain Can Learn From Norway’s Electric Vehicle Success
Britain must significantly accelerate its shift to electric vehicles in the coming decade, according to the country’s climate change advisors. Among the measures recommended by the Climate Change Commission to achieve Net Zero by 2025, the transition to battery-powered cars is predicted to deliver the largest reduction in emissions.
If EVs were to account for nearly all new car and van sales by the end of this decade, making up over three-quarters of vehicles on the road by 2040, the UK could cut national emissions by 27 percent, the report claimed. However, current electric car uptake in Britain, especially among private buyers, isn’t meeting these ambitions, with sales lagging behind earlier projections.
In 2022, the Office for Budget Responsibility expected half of all new vehicle sales to be electric by this year. Yet, only one in five registrations today are battery models, and only one in ten private buyers are choosing EVs.
This is why the government recently consulted with the industry on the 2030 deadline to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, asking for the sector’s views on how to boost EV demand in Britain. But a blueprint for a successful transition away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles already exists: one European country has already increased its EV sales to 90 percent of all car registrations. So, what’s the secret?
The Blueprint to EV Transition:
Fully electric vehicles accounted for 88.9% of all new cars in Norway in 2024. Here’s how Norway has encouraged drivers to switch to battery power…
Norway has led Europe’s transition to electric cars for years, and its latest official registration figures show it is well-positioned to meet its target of only adding EVs to its roads from 2025. Fully electric vehicles made up 88.9 percent of new cars sold in the Scandinavian country in 2024, up from 82.4 percent the previous year, according to data from the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV). The small percentage of petrol and diesel registrations are mainly from rental car firms, as many tourists visiting Norway are unfamiliar with EVs, according to Ulf Tore Hekneby, head of Harald A. Moeller.
This is in stark contrast to the UK, where electric cars have yet to become mainstream. In 2024, EV registrations in the UK increased by 21.4 percent, but still represented less than one in five new models entering the road, garnering a 19.6 percent market share.
However, it’s crucial to note that the volume of car sales in the UK is much larger compared to Norway. Norway’s total of 128,691 registrations in 2024 is a mere fraction of the more than 1.95 million new cars entering Britain’s roads last year. Meanwhile, 381,970 EVs were registered in the UK, which is three times the number bought in Norway in 2024.
Tesla topped the list of best-selling EV brands in Norway, followed by Volkswagen and Toyota. Meanwhile, Chinese EVs, which are growing in popularity in the UK because of their lower prices, accounted for almost 10 percent of new car sales.
What’s Norway’s Secret?
The acceleration of electric car adoption in Norway is unprecedented. A decade ago, EVs accounted for 17.1 percent of total registrations in 2015. However, by 2018, almost a third (31.2 percent) of new model sales were electric, and by 2020, more than half (54.3 percent). The rate of acceleration has continued, with EVs making up almost two-thirds of registrations in 2021 (64.5 percent) and four in five in 2022 (79.3 percent).
The scale of EV uptake in Norway will likely make it ‘the first nation in the world to pretty much eliminate petrol and diesel engine cars from the new car market,’ according to Christina Bu, head of the EV association in the country. So, how has Norway done it?
Firstly, the oil-producing nation taxes petrol and diesel cars heavily while exempting EVs from import and value-added taxes to make them more attractive; however, some levies were reintroduced in 2023. Experts say the policy has been successful because it has been consistent over time, maintained by governments of various political persuasions. Bu noted, ‘Very often we see in other countries that someone puts tax incentives or exemptions and then they pull back again.’
Another factor is that Norway does not have an automaker lobby. “We are not a car-producing country… so taxing cars highly in the past was simple,” explains Hekneby. Chinese EVs, which are becoming increasingly popular in the UK, have accounted for approximately 10% of new car sales in Norway.
Having incentives, rather than banning petrol and diesel cars, has also been crucial. Bu noted that a ban, like the plan in Britain in 2030 and the European Union in 2035, would have angered people. She said, ‘People don’t like being told what to do.’
Norway’s policies have resulted in more EVs on the road than petrol cars. According to Public Road Administration data, battery models accounted for more than 28 percent of all passenger cars driven in the Nordic country as of December.
“That’s the big lesson: put together a broad package (of incentives) and make it predictable for (the) long-term,” said deputy transport minister Cecilie Knibe Kroglund.
This is somewhat in contrast to the UK, where ministers have been discussing with the industry how to make electric car sales targets more lenient.
Industry insiders and politicians in Norway assert that the key to successfully adopting EVs is a comprehensive set of incentives that are ‘predictable for the long-term future.’
The ZEV mandate became law in January 2024.
Annual ZEV Mandate Targets for Cars
- 2024: 22%
- 2025: 28%
- 2026: 33%
- 2027: 38%
- 2028: 52%
- 2029: 66%
- 2030: 80% (20% allowance for hybrids)
- 2035: 100%
In January 2023, Britain adopted a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate, making it the only country in Europe to do so. The then-Tory government stated it would create a pathway to end sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2035.
However, Labour has moved the deadline forward to 2030, leading to confusion among UK motorists. The ZEV mandate requires mainstream car manufacturers to increase their share of EV sales each year between now and 2035, with potential fines of £15,000 per car for failing to meet the yearly quota.
In 2024, the mandate required that a minimum of 22 percent of all sales in Britain should be electric models that produce no tailpipe emissions. The quota rises to 28 percent this year, 80 percent by 2030 (with a 20 percent exemption for hybrids), and 100 percent by 2035. Manufacturers have largely criticized the mandate for not considering the challenging market conditions facing EVs today, with demand, particularly among private buyers, falling short of expectations due to concerns about high prices, range, charging anxiety, and the long-term durability of batteries.
Ministers have also considered relaxing some of the ZEV rules, with reports suggesting that plug-in hybrid vehicles could be included along with pure-electric cars to help manufacturers reach the increasing thresholds.
By 2028, Norway’s largest fuel retailer predicts that the country will have at least as many public charging points as petrol and diesel pumps.
Norway’s Adaptation
The growing share of EVs on Norwegian roads has forced other sectors to adapt. At filling stations, petrol pumps are being rapidly replaced with fast electric chargers.
“Within the next three years, we will have at least as many charging stalls as we have pumps for fuel,” said Anders Kleve Svela, a senior manager at Circle K, Norway’s largest fuel retailer. “In just a couple of years more than 50 percent of all the cars in Norway will be electric. We have to ramp up our charging park according to that,” he added.
In the UK, concerns persist about whether there are adequate public charging points and if the government can meet its target of 300,000 devices nationwide by 2030. The UK currently has 73,334 public electric vehicle chargers available, according to the latest sector figures. Experts believe Norway should be used as a ‘template for success’ by the UK Government and the EU to encourage drivers to go electric.
Chris Heron, secretary general at E-Mobility Europe, stated that all of Europe, not just Britain, should view Norway as a ‘template for success.’ He added, ‘EVs are now the primary mode of transport and demonstrate that freezing temperatures and snow are not an obstacle to widespread adoption. Norway’s success is based on smart and sustainable policies that make EVs more desirable than their petrol counterparts, from tax advantages to bus lane access.’
James Court, policy director at Octopus Electric Vehicles, adds: ‘Norway offers a blueprint for correct EV adoption with clear, consistent, and coordinated policies. The UK has numerous low-cost and low-regret strategies it can employ; it’s not just about grants. Examples of easy wins to maintain UK momentum include easier planning policies, promoting at-home and workplace charger installations, electricity market reforms, and tax incentives for consumers and businesses. Many small policies add up. We must maintain positive energy and continue to encourage people to switch to EVs.’
Quentin Willson, former Top Gear host, EV activist, and founder of the FairCharge campaign, attributes Norway’s success to its use of ‘every policy lever possible to increase EV adoption.’ This strategy includes eliminating import duty, VAT, VED, and other tax breaks, providing free nationwide parking and no tolls for EVs.
“Norway also raised taxes on combustion cars and made government policy very clear to both industry and consumers that EVs were a long-term national policy,” he said. Critically, he explains, “Norway’s policies were joined up and complimentary, all working together to drive passenger car electrification forward. The UK, which often has competing and counter intuitive EV policies, could learn much from Norway.”
