EV Switching Blueprint? The European Country Where 90% of New Cars Are Already Electric
By ROB HULL
Britain must significantly accelerate its transition to electric vehicles (EVs) in the next decade, according to recent recommendations from the country’s climate change advisors.
Of the measures proposed by the Climate Change Commission to meet Net Zero targets by 2025 – including the adoption of heat pumps in homes and a reduction in meat consumption – the switch to EVs is projected to provide the most substantial emissions reductions.
If almost all new car and van sales were electric by the end of this decade, and if EVs made up over three-quarters of all vehicles on the road by 2040, the UK could reduce national emissions by 27%, the report claimed.
Despite these projections, the current uptake of electric cars, particularly among private buyers in the UK, is not mirroring these ambitions. Sales are already falling behind previous forecasts.
In 2022, the Office for Budget Responsibility anticipated that half of all new vehicle sales would be electric by this year. However, only one in five registrations today are battery models, and just one in ten private buyers are opting for EVs.
This has prompted the government to consult with the industry on the 2030 deadline to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, seeking input on how to stimulate EV demand in Britain.
But a successful blueprint already exists for transitioning away from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles: Norway, a European nation that has already increased its EV sales to account for 90% of all car registrations.
So, what is the secret to its success?
The Blueprint to EV Transition: Fully Electric Vehicles Accounted for 88.9% of New Cars in Norway in 2024
Norway has been leading Europe’s transition to electric cars for years, and its latest official registration figures show the country is well-positioned to achieve its target of exclusively adding EVs to its roads from 2025.
Fully electric vehicles accounted for 88.9% of all new cars sold in the Scandinavian country in 2024, up from 82.4% the previous year, according to data from the Norwegian Road Federation (OFV).
Furthermore, the remaining ICE car purchases are largely from rental car firms, according to the largest motor importer in Norway, which provides a stark contrast to the situation in the UK.
Ulf Tore Hekneby, head of Harald A. Moeller, explains that “many tourists visiting Norway are not familiar with EVs.”
In 2024, EV registrations in the UK saw a 21.4% increase. However, they still made up less than one in five new models entering the roads, with electric cars holding a 19.6% market share.
It is important to highlight, that the volume of car sales in the UK greatly exceeds that of Norway.
Norway’s total of 128,691 registrations in 2024 is a fraction of the volume of new cars entering Britain’s roads, which exceeded 1.95 million last year.
In fact, the 381,970 EVs registered in the UK is triple the number of battery cars purchased in Norway in 2024.
Last year’s top-selling EV brands in Norway were Tesla, Volkswagen, and Toyota, while Chinese EVs – which are becoming increasingly popular in the UK because of their lower prices – comprised nearly 10% of new car sales.
What’s Norway’s Secret to Successful EV Transition?
The acceleration of electric car uptake in Norway is unprecedented. A decade ago, EVs made up 17.1% of total registrations in 2015.
However, by 2018, almost a third (31.2%) of new model sales were electric, and by 2020 over half (54.3%).
This rate of acceleration has continued, with EVs making up almost two-thirds of registrations in 2021 (64.5%) and four in five in 2022 (79.3%).
The incredible scale of EV uptake in Norway means it will undoubtedly become the “first nation in the world to pretty much erase petrol and diesel engine cars from the new car market,” according to Christina Bu, head of the EV association in the county.
So, how did they achieve this?
Firstly, the oil-producing nation penalizes petrol and diesel cars with high taxes, whilst exempting EVs from import and value-added taxes to make them more attractive, although some levies were reintroduced in 2023.
Experts say that the consistency of this policy over time has been key, as it has been maintained by governments of different political persuasions.
“Very often we see in other countries that someone puts tax incentives or exemptions and then they pull back again,” says Bu.
“We are not a car-producing country…so taxing cars highly in the past was simple,” explains Hekneby. The absence of a carmaker lobby has also been helpful. This is key as well.
Having incentives, rather than banning petrol and diesel cars – as is the plan in Britain in 2030 and the European Union in 2035 – was also crucial, adds Bu. “That would (have) made people angry. People don’t like being told what to do,” she said.
Norway’s policies mean there are now more EVs on the road in the country than petrol cars; battery models accounted for more than 28 per cent of all passenger cars driven in the Nordic country as of December, according to Public Road Administration data.
“That’s the big lesson: put together a broad package (of incentives) and make it predictable for (the) long-term,” said deputy transport minister Cecilie Knibe Kroglund.
This is in contrast to the UK, where ministers have been locked in discussions with the industry to discuss how to make electric car sales targets more lenient, despite being introduced only last year.
UK’s ZEV Mandate
The ZEV mandate was made law in January 2024 and forces car makers to sell an increasing share of EVs between now and 2035
In January 2023, Britain became the only country in Europe to make law a Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate with the then Tory Government saying it would set out the pathway to ending sales of new petrol and diesel cars in 2035.
However, Labour has since brought forward that deadline to 2030, causing confusion and concern among motorists in the UK.
The ZEV mandate requires mainstream car makers to increase their share of EV sales every year between now and 2035, with the threat of fines of £15,000 per car short of the annual quota if they fail to meet the designated threshold.
In 2024, the mandate demanded that a minimum of 22 per cent of all sales in Britain must be electric models that produce no tailpipe emissions. The quota increases to 28 per cent this year, 80 per cent by 2030 (with 20 per cent exemption for hybrids) and 100 per cent when we reach 2035.
Manufacturers have widely been critical of the mandate for failing to taking into consideration the difficult market conditions facing EVs today, which has seen demand – particularly among private buyers – fall behind expectations over concerns about high prices, range and charging anxiety, and how futureproof the batteries inside the cars are.
Ministers have recently opened the door to relaxing some of the ZEV rules, with reports it that plug-in hybrid vehicles could be included along with pure-electric cars to help manufacturers meet the increasing thresholds.
Chris Heron, secretary general at E-Mobility Europe, said the whole of Europe – not just Britain – should look at Norway as a ‘template for success’. He added: ‘EVs are now the main mode of transport and prove that freezing temperatures and snow are no obstacle for mass adoption. ‘Norway’s success has been built on smart and sustainable policies making EVs more desirable than their petrol equivalents – from tax advantages to bus lane access.’
James Court, policy director at Octopus Electric Vehicles, adds: ‘Norway is a blueprint for how to get EV adoption right, with clear, consistent and joined up policy. ‘The UK has plenty of low cost and low regret levers we can pull, it’s not all about grants. ‘Examples of easy wins to keep UK momentum include easier planning policy, support for home and workplace chargers’ installation, reform to the electricity market, as well as tax incentives for consumers and businesses. ‘Lots of small policies adding up to a lot. We must maintain the positive energy and continue to get people in EVs.’
Former Top Gear host and now EV activist and founder of the FairCharge campaign, Quentin Willson, says Norway’s success can be attributed to its ‘pulling every policy lever it could to increase EV adoption’. This includes no import duty, no VAT, VED and other tax breaks, to free nationwide parking and no tolls for EVs. ‘Norway also raised taxes on combustion cars and made government policy very clear to both industry and consumers that EVs were a long-term national policy.’Critically, Norway’s policies were joined up and complimentary, all working together to drive passenger car electrification forward. ‘The UK, which often has competing and counter intuitive EV policies, could learn much from Norway,’ he said.
