The Changing Face of Russian Front-Line Forces in Ukraine
The ongoing war in Ukraine has brought about some striking changes in the types of vehicles used by the Russian military. Recent analysis indicates that the proportion of civilian-style vehicles and armored trucks in Russian losses has dramatically increased. While tanks and fighting vehicles remain a substantial part of the Russian arsenal, the influx of vehicles like vans, compact cars, and even all-terrain vehicles, reveals the strain on Russian supply lines and the intensity of the fighting.
According to a recent survey, civilian-style vehicles now represent approximately 70% of Russian losses. This shift doesn’t mean fewer tanks and fighting vehicles are present on the front lines. Instead, the data shows that the number of destroyed and abandoned tanks and fighting vehicles is actually higher than it was a year ago, despite making up a smaller percentage of total losses. This trend underscores the scale and intensity of the Russian offensives.
The surge in vehicle losses of all types is directly related to the ambitious offensives Russia has launched in eastern and western Ukraine. Until recently, the Russians were attacking across various sectors, deploying whatever vehicles they could acquire through official or unofficial channels.
The numbers illustrate the situation. Analyst Chris Jones’s data shows that while tanks and fighting vehicles constituted about half of the roughly 375 vehicles Russia lost in February 2024, a year later, in February 2024, Russian losses swelled to around 1,100 vehicles. However, tanks and fighting vehicles accounted for only about 250 of the losses. The fact that half of the losses were civilian or armored trucks still represents a raw increase in armored vehicle presence on the front lines.
This shift can be attributed to several factors. Russian industry produces only a limited number of new armored vehicles annually. As Russian mechanized units have been losing armored vehicles at a rate of approximately 6,000 per year, or 500 per month—primarily due to Ukrainian mines, artillery, and drones—a significant shortfall has emerged.
In an effort to overcome shortages, the Russians have opened up storage bases that once housed thousands of obsolete Cold War vehicles, as early as 2022. However, even these older vehicles have not been sufficient to adequately equip front-line regiments. Analyst Jompy highlighted the challenges with the BTR wheeled fighting vehicles, explaining in January that many stored vehicles are old, in poor condition, and difficult to reactivate.
As a result, civilian-style vehicles became a last resort. This shift has become increasingly common. “I guess this Lada storming is the norm now?” observed open-source analyst Moklasen after reviewing a video of a Ukrainian drone unit destroying Russian compact cars. Now, it is clear that civilian-style vehicles are becoming increasingly vital for Russian mobility on the battlefield despite their limited protection.
