The UK must accelerate its adoption of electric vehicles to meet its climate goals, according to recommendations from the government’s independent Committee on Climate Change.
Ambitious Targets for Electric Vehicle Adoption
The committee’s latest report outlines a pathway to decarbonizing the UK, suggesting that a significant shift to electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial. The report calls for 80% of cars, 75% of vans, and nearly two-thirds of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) on the road to be electric within the next 15 years. To achieve this, the market share of new electric cars would need to increase from 16% in 2023 to 55% by 2027, with electric vans increasing from 6% to reach 34% in the same timeframe.
The report emphasizes that EVs will be the primary driver of decarbonization within the transport sector. It suggests that hydrogen cars and vans have no viable future in the UK, with only “very little or potentially even no role” for hydrogen in heavier vehicles. The committee acknowledges the importance of continued investment in charging infrastructure to build commercial confidence in electric vans. It also indicates that additional measures may be necessary to reduce barriers to EV adoption.
The committee applauded the government’s plan to reinstate the phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030. However, it also said that ministers should confirm the 2040 phase-out for new diesel HGVs, restore the 2030 date for vans, and explore the inclusion of hybrid cars in the phase-out plan.
Surface Transport’s Role in Decarbonization
With the UK committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, surface transport is currently the highest-emitting sector. In 2023, this sector accounted for 24% of UK emissions, totaling 102.8 MtCO2e (megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent). By adhering to its electrification targets, the committee says surface transport emissions could fall by 86% by 2040. By then, the surface transport sector would account for approximately 14.9 MtCO2e of UK greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and would be the UK’s fourth-highest-emitting sector overall. Furthermore, the report suggests that the sector could achieve almost complete decarbonization through rapid electrification by 2050.
Professor Piers Forster, interim chair of the Committee on Climate Change, commented: “For a long time, decarbonisation in this country has really meant work in the power sector, but now we need to see action on transport, buildings, industry, and farming. This will create opportunities in the economy, tackle climate change, and bring down household bills. Our analysis shows that there is no need to pitch action on climate change against the economy. We will need Government and business to deliver the investment, but we are confident that this Seventh Carbon Budget offers a secure, prosperous future for the UK.”
Under UK law, the committee provides independent guidance on the UK’s emission levels over five-year periods, known as ‘carbon budgets.’ Each carbon budget represents a milestone along the path to net-zero emissions by 2050. The latest guidance suggests that emissions should be 13% of their 1990 levels by 2040 to keep the UK on track.
Industry Perspectives
Matthew Adams, CEO and head of transport at Recharge UK, the EV arm of the Renewable Energy Association (REA), stated: “It is now clear that the success of HGV decarbonisation in many cases after 2040 lies with electric batteries. It is therefore critical that the Government include HGV charging infrastructure in its rapid charging fund and address rising concerns around grid connections to support the backbone of the UK’s economy, the logistics sector. Without significant investment in public and depot-based charging, the 7th Carbon Budget’s targets will fail to be hit.”
Adams added: “What underpins the transition to electric vehicles is the need for investment, which can only be achieved through clear and consistent long term policy signals. We must move away from the chop and change of the last Government and move towards consistent messaging around the positive role EVs play in the transition to a net zero economy, improving our health, our wallets and our economy. Government must therefore kick start a mass information campaign to raise awareness of the number of ways consumers can access an EV at low cost such as salary sacrifice and the growing second-hand market.”
