The Rise of Electric Light Commercial Vehicles
Electric light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) now account for nearly 5% of the global light commercial vehicle (LCV) market, with battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) making up the vast majority of these. The question arises whether hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) will ever play a significant role in this segment.
Comparison Between FCEVs and BEVs
Hydrogen fuel cell LCVs offer zero-emission cargo transport, just like BEVs. However, FCEVs differentiate themselves through extended range and fast refueling. Hydrogen is a higher-density energy source than Li-ion batteries, allowing FCEVs greater runtime. New FCEV LCVs have a typical range of 400 to 600 km, with some expected to achieve 1000 km soon. Refueling times for FCEVs are also faster, taking 5 to 10 minutes, compared to battery charging times that can range from 30 minutes to 8 hours.
Limitations of FCEVs in the LCV Market
Despite their advantages, FCEVs face significant challenges. Most LCVs operate within cities, making their usage low-mileage by nature. Battery technology is already sufficient to satisfy an LCV’s mileage demands, with average eLCVs having batteries sized for 200 km of operation. Additionally, LCVs and fleets don’t require fast refueling, as battery-electric LCVs can be charged overnight.
Barriers to FCEV Adoption
FCEVs are not as mature as battery technology, making them more expensive. The type of hydrogen used is also a concern, with over 95% of the world’s hydrogen production being ‘grey’ hydrogen, which has significant emissions output. ‘Green’ hydrogen, produced through electrolysis using renewable energy, is more expensive and relies on the development of electrolyzer technology and renewable energy infrastructure.
Regional Variations in FCEV Adoption
China is the only region where FCEVs have established a foothold in the LCV market, thanks to government investment in hydrogen technology. In contrast, Japan and Korea have invested heavily in hydrogen mobility but have not been able to commercialize fuel cell LCVs. Europe has seen increased interest in hydrogen LCVs, with companies like Renault and Stellantis Group manufacturers initiating new development efforts.
IDTechEx Outlook
The IDTechEx report expects FCEVs to play a small role in the future of LCVs, as their strengths are better suited to other commercial vehicle classes with more intensive distance requirements. The report highlights the need for green hydrogen for truly zero-emission operation and the challenges faced in producing and transporting green hydrogen at scale.
The full IDTechEx report, ‘Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts,’ provides in-depth analysis of FCEVs and other powertrain technologies, including sales trends, key players, and total costs of ownership. For more information, visit www.IDTechEx.com/ELCV.
